Manchester City and Arsenal are both guaranteed to finish in the Champions League places, but nothing is assured beneath them as clubs jostle for position in the home straight of this engrossing Premier League season.
Liverpool's comfortable 3-0 win at Leicester on Monday - their seventh straight win - has seen Jurgen Klopp's side move to within touching distance of Newcastle and Manchester United, who currently occupy the remaining two Champions League spots.
The fifth-placed Reds are just a point behind Newcastle and Manchester United in third and fourth respectively, however, they both have a game in hand on Liverpool.
Eddie Howe's side's game in hand is at home to Brighton on Thursday, live on Sky Sports, while Man Utd's is at home against Chelsea on May 25, live on Sky Sports.Brighton, following their impressive win at Arsenal, are not out of the mix either and they have two games in hand on Liverpool, and one on Newcastle and Man Utd.
Brighton's remaining games: Newcastle (a), Southampton (h), Man City (h), Aston Villa (a)
Erik ten Hag's side's exit from the Europa League to Sevilla means England cannot have five Champions League representatives.
Neville and Carra's verdict: 'Newcastle at risk'
On Monday Night Football following Liverpool's 3-0 win over Leicester, Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher argued that Newcastle are most at risk of dropping out of the top four for Jurgen Klopp's side.
"Liverpool will get 71 points," said Neville. "I don't think there's any point in Newcastle or Manchester United thinking they don't have to win two matches each out of their last three. They have to, or else they will be in big trouble."
Carragher added: "Brighton are in great form and will believe they can go to Newcastle and get a result. On the back of Liverpool winning tonight, I think if you are Newcastle, the supporters, players, staff will be watching that tonight and thinking 'oof'.
"Brighton at home, Chelsea away. Chelsea are on a horrendous run but they have still got players who can produce a bit of magic.
"I think Newcastle are more likely to slip up. They have been unbelievable all season. They have been one of the teams I've looked forward to watching. But that Brighton game is absolutely huge. I think if Newcastle drop points in that, there will be a big worry on for them."
Neville added: "With Newcastle, it's a little bit of a wobble, losing to Arsenal, drawing with Leeds. I would say they are more likely to slip and that's not me being overconfident about Manchester United.
"It would be harsh on Newcastle, but Manchester United have got comfortable games. They would be shooting themselves in the foot if they didn't get top four."
What is already set in stone?
At the start of the campaign, it was stipulated that the Premier League's top four qualify for the Champions League, while fifth place and the FA Cup winners enter the Europa League. The winners of the Carabao Cup qualify for the Europa Conference League.
But Manchester United's success in the Carabao Cup, coupled with an all-Manchester FA Cup final, has already distorted the picture and means that, as it stands, the European qualification picture is as follows:
Champions League: Man City (Q), Arsenal (Q), Newcastle, Manchester United
Europa League: Liverpool, Brighton
Europa Conference League: Tottenham
The places are subject to change, however, depending on where Manchester United ultimately finish in the Premier League - plus West Ham's possible Europa Conference League glory.
How will seventh place qualify for Europe?
This can only happen if Man Utd and the winners of the FA Cup finish in the top six of the Premier League. That would mean seventh gets the place in the Europa Conference League. It is impossible for eighth to qualify by league position.
How many teams will qualify for Europe based on Premier League position?
Fourth = Champions League. Fifth or sixth = Europa League. Seventh = Conference League.
Here's why...
The top four in the Premier League qualify for the Champions League group stage
Fifth place and the FA Cup winners qualify for the Europa League group stage
The Carabao Cup winners qualify for the Europa Conference League playoff
However, as one of Man City and Man Utd are going to win the FA Cup and finish in the top five their Europa League qualifying spot for winning the competition will be passed down to the next highest Premier League finisher who doesn't qualify for Europe, so sixth place.
Also, because Man Utd won the Carabao Cup and will likely finish in the top five, their Europa Conference League qualifying spot from that competition will go to the next highest Premier League finisher without European football, so seventh place.
What if West Ham win the Europa Conference League?
West Ham will earn a place in next season's Europa League group stage should they prevail in Prague on June 7.
As the Hammers will not qualify for Europe domestically, England would have eight teams in Europe next season - even if West Ham were to be relegated.
And finally: Why Man City winning the Champions League could be good news for Ukraine...
Manchester City
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Manchester City face Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-finals
It will not affect the Premier League representatives as City are going to finish in the top four regardless. A fifth Champions League spot is not filtered down via the league positions.
But a place in the group stage for the Champions League titleholders is left vacant. In this event, the champions of the country ranked 11th in the UEFA coefficient table at the end of the 2021/22 season - which is Serbia - would go direct to the Champions League group stage, rather than having to qualify.
However, with Russia ranked 10th and its clubs remaining excluded from European competition, the Serbian champions are already guaranteed a place in the group stage.
That means the champions of the 12th-ranked country - Ukraine - would be given a place in the group stage if City finally lift the Champions League trophy in Istanbul
